WTIO21 PGTW 291730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (REMNANTS OF TC 03B)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22.4N 71.7E TO 23.4N 66.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 291200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 22.6N 71.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 03B) PREVIOUSLY 
LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 72.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 71.4E, 
APPROXIMATELY 103 NM NORTH OF JAFARABAD, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 291314Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE 
IMAGE DEPICT FORMATIVE BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE 
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AT THE EDGE OF 
THE INDIAN SHORELINE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN OVERALL 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THAT IS 
ENHANCING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.   THE CIRCULATION ALSO IS MOVING 
TOWARDS AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
GOOD IN AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANTS OF TC 03B WILL STRENGTHEN AND 
CONSOLIDATE AS IT EMERGES OVER THE ARABIAN SEA AND PROPAGATES WEST 
NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
301730Z.//
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