ABIO10 PGTW 290830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/290830Z-291800ZSEP2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290230Z-
291800ZSEP2021//
AMPN/REF A IS THE SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE 
INDIAN OCEAN.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 03B) PREVIOUSLY 
LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 76.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 72.4E, 
APPROXIMATELY 192 NM NORTH OF MUMBAI. THE REMNANTS OF 03B CONTINUES 
TO TRACK ACROSS THE GUJARAT PENINSULA AND IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO 
THE NORTH ARABIAN SEA IN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. ONCE OFFSHORE, THE 
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES THROUGH AN AREA OF LOW 
(10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANTS OF 
03B WILL CONSOLIDATE AND TRACK ALONG THE COAST OF PAKISTAN WITH 
INTENSITY AT OR JUST BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO 
MEDIUM.//
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