ABPW10 PGTW 280600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/280600Z-290600ZSEP2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280151ZSEP2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 28SEP21 0000Z, TYPHOON 20W (MINDULLE) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
21.0N 136.2E, APPROXIMATELY 362 NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, AND HAD 
TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 45 FEET. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 95 KNOTS GUSTING TO 115 KNOTS. SEE 
REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 280300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
21.3N 153.2E, APPROXIMATELY 792 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO. 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 280650Z SSMIS 89GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT PERSISTENT CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE 
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 
272143Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS HIGHER WINDS IN THE EASTERN 
HEMISPHERE OF THE ELONGATED LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH GOOD 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) 
AND LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). NUMERICAL MODELS 
AGREE THAT 91W WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL 
DAYS, BUT DISAGREE REGARDING INTENSIFICATION, WITH NAVGEM SHOWING 
INTENSIFICATION BUT ECMWF AND JMA REMAINING BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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