ABPW10 PGTW 221200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/221200Z-230600ZSEP2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221121ZSEP2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// 
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.2N 151.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 149.6E, APPROXIMATELY 
326 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM . ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 220621Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED AND 
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY FLARING 
CONVECTION IN THE NORTH-NORTH WEST QUADRANT. POSITIONING OF THE 
PRECISE CIRCULATION CENTER IS MADE DIFFICULT DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF 
POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE CIRCULATION CENTERS WITHIN THE BROADER 
ROTATION, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH A COMBINATION OF STRONG OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10 KT) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE GOOD IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 
99W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS 
HOWEVER, THEY ARE SPLIT ON THE DEGREE OF DEVELOPMENT. GFS, ITS 
ENSEMBLE, AND NAVGEM CONTINUE TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, INDICATING 
RAPID CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION, WITH 99W DEVELOPING WITHIN 
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE ARE MUCH MORE RESERVED, 
INDICATING LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AFTER TAU 36, WELL TO THE 
WEST OF THE MARIANAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 
NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A 
(WTPN21 PGTW 221130) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 12.3N 115.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 114.4E, APPROXIMATELY 
297 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED 
MULTI SPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD CIRCULATION WHICH HAS STARTED 
TO CONSOLIDATE WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION AROUND THE ASSESSED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS 
INDICATED A DISCREET LLCC WITH 20 KNOT WINDS IN ALL QUADRANTS, AND 
HIGHER WINDS IN A BAND TO THE SOUTH. RECENT TRENDS FROM A SHIP 
TRANSITING JUST EAST OF THE LLCC INDICATES WINDS SHIFTING FROM WEST-
NORTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS, AND A PRESSURE 
READING OF 1004.2 MB, INDICATING A CLOSE PASSAGE TO THE CENTER AND A 
LOWER PRESSURE THAN MODELS SUGGESTED. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT ACCOMPANIED BY LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
TOWARDS VIETNAM AS IT STEADILY CONSOLIDATES. GFS, ECMWF AND NAVGEM 
ALL AGREE ON THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATING AND STRENGTHENING TO NEAR 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE GFS 
ENSEMBLE INDICATING SLIGHTLY HIGHER LEVEL OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE 
SOUTH CHINA SEA.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: REISSUED TCFA FOR AREA IN PARA 1.B.
(1). //
NNNN