ABPW10 PGTW 220930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/220930Z-230600ZSEP2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211221ZSEP2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// 
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 10.9N 150.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 150.1E, APPROXIMATELY 
355 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTI SPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) 
AND A 220305Z AMSR2 89GHZ PASS DEPICT POCKETS OF FLARING CONVECTION 
AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH A COMBINATION 
OF BOTH EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99W WILL 
CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS HOWEVER, 
THEY ARE SPLIT ON THE DEGREE OF DEVELOPMENT. GFS, ITS ENSEMBLE, AND 
NAVGEM ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, INDICATING RAPID CONSOLIDATION AND 
INTENSIFICATION, WITH 99W DEVELOPING WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. 
ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE ARE STILL MUCH MORE RESERVED, INDICATING 
LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AFTER TAU 48, WELL TO THE WEST OF THE 
MARIANAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 
211230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 12.3N 115.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 114.4E, APPROXIMATELY 
297 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED 
MULTI SPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD CIRCULATION WHICH HAS STARTED 
TO CONSOLIDATE WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION AROUND THE ASSESSED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS 
INDICATED A DISCREET LLCC WITH 20 KNOT WINDS IN ALL QUADRANTS, AND 
HIGHER WINDS IN A BAND TO THE SOUTH. RECENT TRENDS FROM A SHIP 
TRANSITING JUST EAST OF THE LLCC INDICATES WINDS SHIFTING FROM WEST-
NORTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS, AND A PRESSURE 
READING OF 1004.2 MB, INDICATING A CLOSE PASSAGE TO THE CENTER AND A 
LOWER PRESSURE THAN MODELS SUGGESTED. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT ACCOMPANIED BY LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
TOWARDS VIETNAM AS IT STEADILY CONSOLIDATES. GFS, ECMWF AND NAVGEM 
ALL AGREE ON THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATING AND STRENGTHENING TO NEAR 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE GFS 
ENSEMBLE INDICATING SLIGHTLY HIGHER LEVEL OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE 
SOUTH CHINA SEA.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2) TO 
MEDIUM.//
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