ABIO10 PGTW 220830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/220830Z-221800ZSEP2021//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211821ZSEP2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 10.3S 81.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.9S 80.5E, APPROXIMATELY 499 
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTI SPECTRAL IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH OF A 
PARTIALLY EXPOSED, DISORGANIZED AND ILL DEFINED, LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS NOW DEPICTS SOMEWHAT 
UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT 
AND WARM (28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), BUT VERY STRONG (30-
40KT) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90S WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT OVER THE 
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 
NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW. SEE 
REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 211830) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DOWNGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO 
LOW.//
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