ABIO10 PGTW 121800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/121800Z-131800ZSEP2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120651ZSEP2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF 
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 16.0N 88.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 81.6E, APPROXIMATELY 154 
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 121427Z METOP-A 
PASS REVEALS A SWATH OF 30-35 KT WIND BARBS OVER THE SOUTHWEST 
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM WITH WEAKER (10-15 KT) WINDS OVER THE 
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE PARADIP RADAR 
INDICATES BETTER ORGANIZATION WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE 
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS NOW INDICATES A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
DUE TO MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET 
BY GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND VERY WARM (29-30C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE GOOD IN AGREEMENT 
THAT INVEST 95B WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND TRACK 
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THERE EXISTS A BRIEF 
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO REACH MINIMAL TROPICAL 
STORM STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF 
INDIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 993 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 
120700) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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