ABIO10 PGTW 120700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/120700Z-121800ZSEP2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120651ZSEP2021//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 16.0N 88.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 88.1E, APPROXIMATELY 185 
NM SOUTH OF KOLKATA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP 
CONVECTION SURROUNDING MOST OF THE BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC), WHILE STEADILY CONSOLIDATING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
NOW INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO A DECREASE IN VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS) FROM MODERATE TO LOW (10KT), GOOD EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT AND VERY WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE GOOD IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95B WILL CONTINUE TO 
CONSOLIDATE AND TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND 
THERE EXISTS A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO REACH 
MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL ALONG THE 
NORTHEAST COAST OF INDIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. SEE 
REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 120700) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1.) TO 
HIGH.//
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