WTPN21 PHNC 112300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
175 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.5N 97.7W TO 15.5N 100.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 111800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.5N 97.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
11.5N 97.7W, APPROXIMATELY 1665 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A NARROW BAND OF DEEP 
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER 
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED UNDER AN AREA OF 
BROAD DIFFLUENCE WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL 
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP AS IT TRACKS 
TOWARDS THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
122300Z.//
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