ABIO10 PGTW 101800 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/101800Z-111800ZSEP2021// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.0N 88.0E, APPROXIMATELY 489 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS EXPANSIVE AND SCATTERED CONVECTION AROUND A BROAD EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 101328Z ASCAT-A IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 25-30 KNOT CONVERGENT WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KT), FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C), AND BURGEONING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95B WILL TRACK NORTHWEST AND HAS A SMALL WINDOW TO INTENSIFY WILL THE TROPICAL EASTERLY JET WEAKENING IN THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN