WTPN21 PHNC 070630
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INCEST 96E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060621Z SEP 21//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.4N 106.6W TO 19.7N 108.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 070000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.4N 106.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 16.2N 104.4W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 106.7W, APPROXIMATELY 
160 NM SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 0111Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A 
SMALL POCKET OF CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF A BROAD LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC). INVEST 96E IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (<15 KT) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 
INVEST 96E WILL CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN AS IT PROPAGATES NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. 
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
080630Z.
//
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