WTPN21 PHNC 060630
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.9N 103.9W TO 18.3N 106.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 060600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.2N 104.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
16.2N 104.4W, APPROXIMATELY 166 NM SOUTH OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL 
POCKET OF CONVECTION OVER A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 
060124Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS AN OVERALL LACK OF 
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. INVEST 96E IS IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (<15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL 
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96E WILL CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN AS IT 
PROPAGATES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
070630Z.//
NNNN