ABPW10 PGTW 060000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/060000Z-060600ZSEP2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/052330ZSEP2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/052300ZSEP2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 12.6N 139.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 139.1E, APPROXIMATELY 
328 NM WEST OF GUAM. THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUS 
LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 139.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 139.1E, 
APPROXIMATELY 328 NM WEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH 
PERSISTENT CONVECTION. A 052101Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS 
SOUTHEASTERLY FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED 
LLC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30C), LOW VWS (05-10KT) AND EQUATORIAL 
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 94 TRACKING 
NORTHWESTWARD WITH DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 12-36 
HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN22 PGTW 
052330) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.0N 129.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 128.5E, APPROXIMATELY 
327 NM SOUTHEAST OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. THE AREA OF CONVECTION 
(INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 129.7E IS NOW LOCATED 
10.2N 128.5E, APPROXIMATELY 327 NM SOUTH EAST OF LEGAZPI, 
PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD 
NOTCHED CONVECTION OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION(LLC). A 051703Z 
ATMS 88.2GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A CURVED, DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF THE LLC. ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30C), LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (05-
10KT) AND DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL 
AGREEMENT WITH 95W TRACKING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH GRADUAL 
DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12-36HRS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 052300) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREAS IN PARA. 1.B.(1) AND 
1.B.(2) TO HIGH//
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