WTPN22 PGTW 052330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.1N 139.2E TO 16.9N 136.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 090518Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.2N 139.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUS LOCATED 
NEAR 12.6N 139.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 139.1E, APPROXIMATELY 
328 NM WEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED PERSISTENT SYSTEM. A 052101Z SSMIS 91GHZ 
IMAGE SHOWS SOUTHEASTERLY CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED 
LLC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30C), LOW VWS (05-10KT) AND EQUATORIAL 
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 94 TRACKING NORTH 
WEST WITH DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 12-36 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
062330Z.//
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