ABPW10 PGTW 051400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/051400Z-060600ZSEP2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 12.1N 140.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 139.5E, APPROXIMATELY 
304 NM WEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION OBSUCRING A LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS BEGINNING TO 
CONSOLIDATE. INVEST 95W IS IN A MOSTLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
CHARACTERIZED BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND LOW 
(<15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL 
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST 94W WILL UNDERGO MINIMAL, IF ANY, 
CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS IT 
INTERACTS WITH INVEST 95W. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 94W WILL 
INTENSIFY BEYOND TAU 48 TO WARNING STRENGTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.2N 131.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 129.7E, APPROXIMATELY 
367 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED EIR 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION OBSUCRING A LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING 
INTO THE CENTER. A 051148Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS REVEALS 15-20 KT WINDS 
ALONG THE OUTSKIRTS OF THE DEEP CONVECTION, AND MARGINAL WRAPPING OF 
THE WINDS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. INVEST 95W IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM (30C) 
SST, AND LOW (<15KT) VWS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST 
95W WILL UNDERGO MINIMAL, IF ANY, CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREAS IN PARA 1.B.(1) AND 1.B.
(2) TO MEDIUM.//
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