ABPW10 PGTW 050600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/050600Z-060600ZSEP2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.2N 141.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 140.0E, APPROXIMATELY 
285 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 050401Z AMSR2 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP 
CONVECTION OBSCURING AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(SST), AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) 
OFFSET BY WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THAT 94W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD WITH ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND TAU 48, GLOBAL MODELS FEATURE SOME 
INTERACTION BETWEEN INVEST 94W AND 95W, WITH 94W REACHING TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION STRENGTH BY TAU 48-72. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
11.2N 131.1E, APPROXIMATELY 446 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LEGAZPI, 
PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS 
PERSISTENT CONVECTION OBSUCRING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. INVEST 
95W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT, WARM (30C) SST, AND LOW (<15KT) VWS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY 
AGREE THAT INVEST 95W WILL UNDERGO MINIMAL, IF ANY, CONSOLIDATION 
AND INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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