ABPW10 PGTW 040600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/040600Z-050600ZSEP2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031951ZSEP2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 03SEP21 1800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 159.6E, APPROXIMATELY 997 NM EAST OF YOKOSUKA, 
JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHEAST-WARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 032100) FOR THE FINAL 
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.1N 143.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 141.9E, APPROXIMATELY 
210 NM SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD, WEAKLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ABSENT 
OF CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. A 040039Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS PRIMARILY 
LIGHT (5-10 KT) WINDS WITH SOME 15-25KT WINDS UNDER THE CONVECTION 
DISPLACED FROM THE ILL-DEFINED CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) 
OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (15-25KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94W WILL TRACK TO THE 
NORTHWEST AS IT INTENSIFIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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