ABPW10 PGTW 030100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND /SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/030100Z-030600ZSEP2021// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/021951ZSEP2021// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 02SEP21 1800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 158.2E, APPROXIMATELY 1075 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 022100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.7N 144.8E, APPROXIMATELY 232 NM SOUTH OF ANDERSEN, AFB. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP FLARING CONVECTION CYCLING OVER A BROAD, WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. CONFIDENCE IN THE BEST TRACK POSITION IS HIGH WITH SUPPORT PROVIDED BY A 022203Z METOP-A BULLSEYE PASS WHICH SHOWED WEAK LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 94W POSITIONED NEAR THE DIVERGENT PORTION OF A COL REGION PROVIDING GOOD DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VWS (10 TO 20 KNOT) VWS, AND VERY WARM (30 TO 31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT THAT 94W WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFY THOUGH THE ECMWF REMAINS AN OUTLIER, FORECASTING MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 TO 60 HOURS IN THE VICINITY OR JUST WEST OF THE SOUTHERN MARIANAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO LOW.// NNNN