ABPW10 PGTW 010600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/010600Z-020600ZSEP2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
24.9N 163.3E, APPROXIMATELY 381 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. 
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION, 
GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MID-LATITUDE 
CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED AND 
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 312214Z 
ASCAT-B PARTIAL PASS REVEALS A HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD 
WITH LIGHTER WINDS TOWARDS THE CENTER AND A SWATH OF 25-30 KT WINDS 
DISPLACED 90 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES AN OVERALL MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (VWS) AND MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT PRIMARILY CONTRIBUTED BY THE 
TUTT CELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. INVEST 93W IS TRACKING OVER 
WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), CONTRIBUTING TO 
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93W 
WILL UNDERGO SLOW CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION BEFORE RECURVING 
POLEWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. 
FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN 
DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED 
FORECAST AUTHORITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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