WTPN21 PHNC 250730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240721ZAUG21//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.9N 98.0W TO 13.2N 104.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 250700Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.9N 98.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 12.5N 94.0W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 98.6W, APPROXIMATELY 1565 
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, CA. ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 250345Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW DEEP CONVECTION 
OFFSET TO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC). A 250325Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A STRENGTHENING 
CIRCULATION WITH HIGHER WINDS (30KTS) IN THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE, 
BENEATH THE CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-
15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SST). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95E 
WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD AS IT INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24-48 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
260730Z.//
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