WTPN21 PHNC 240730 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95E)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 190 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.4N 93.7W TO 13.2N 101.2W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 240700Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 94.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.5N 94.0W, APPROXIMATELY 1752 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, CA. ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. A 240228Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 15-20KT WINDS DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95E WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD AS IT INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 250730Z.// NNNN