WTPN21 PHNC 230100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94E) REISSUED//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.2N 106.9W TO 20.5N 114.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 221800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.3N 107.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94E, PREVIOUSLY REMNANTS 
OF HURRICANE 07L) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 99.5W IS NOW LOCATED 
NEAR 19.3N 107.6W, APPROXIMATELY 194 NM EAST OF SOCORRO ISLAND. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY 
OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION 
CONSOLIDATING OVER THE CENTER. INVEST 94E IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (29-30C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW (<15 KT) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A SHORT TERM 
CONSOLIDATION AS IT PROPAGATES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
240100Z.//
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