ABPW10 PGTW 190600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/190600Z-200600ZAUG2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181921ZAUG2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 16W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 14.3N 138.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 135.2E, APPROXIMATELY 
720 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED, COMPACT LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST 16W 
IS IN A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TRACKING NEAR A DIVERGENT 
QUADRANT OF A COL REGION THAT PROVIDES GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, OVER 
WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20KT) 
WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 16W WILL TRACK TO 
THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, THEY ARE SPLIT IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND 
INTENSIFICATION, WITH GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 181930) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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