ABPW10 PGTW 290600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/290600Z-300600ZJUL2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/281353ZJUL2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 28JUL21 1200Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (NEPARTAK) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 138.5E, APPROXIMATELY 127 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF 
MISAWA, JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED 
AT 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN33 PGTW 281500) FOR 
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 26.5N 129.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 131.6E, APPROXIMATELY 
231 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA, AFB. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
(LLC) EMBEDDED IN A BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (05-10 KTS), DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
ON FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM TRACKING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD 
THOUGH CONSOLIDATION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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