WTPN21 PHNC 260100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98E) REISSUED// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260051Z JUL 21// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 260100)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.1N 135.9W TO 13.8N 143.3W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 251800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 136.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 130.3W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 136.5W, APPROXIMATELY 1312 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU, HAWAII. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 252203Z ATM 88 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT AN IRREGULAR LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEPENING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND ALONG A FRAGMENTED SOUTHERN BAND. A 251822Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 25 KNOT WIND BARBS IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, AND LOWER WIND BARBS ELSEWHERE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST 98E IS LOCATED IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS) AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 270100Z. // NNNN