WTPN21 PHNC 250100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.1N 129.8W TO 13.8N 136.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 241800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.2N 130.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
131.2N 130.3W, APPROXIMATELY 1650 NM EAST-SOUTH EAST OF HONOLULU, 
HAWAII. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 242227Z AMSR2 
PARTIAL MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) 
WITH CONSOLIDATING AND DEEPENING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE 
NORTHWEST. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES 98E IS LOCATED IN AN AREA  
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (05-10KTS) 
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES(29-30 C). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
260100Z.
//
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