ABPW10 PGTW 220600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/220600Z-230600ZJUL2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220152ZJUL2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220151ZJUL2021//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 22JUL21 0000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 109.1E, APPROXIMATELY 283 NM WEST OF HONG KONG, 
AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 220300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) AT 22JUL21 0000Z, TYPHOON 09W (IN-FA) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
23.3N 126.0E, APPROXIMATELY 216 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, AND 
HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS GUSTING 
TO 110 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN31 PGTW 220300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
21.4N 144.9E, APPROXIMATELY 466 NM NORTH OF GUAM. THE SYSTEM IS 
CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE, GENERALLY 
CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE 
FEATURES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY 
WEAK, DISORGANIZED DISTURBANCE FORMING ALONG THE EASTERN EXTENT OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH. RECENT ASCAT DATA INDICATES A SHARP TROUGH WITH 
CONVERGENT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANAS. UPPER-LEVEL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS (STRONG NORTHERLY VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR OF 20-30 KNOTS WITH BROAD DIVERGENCE) NOT CONDUCIVE FOR 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER, THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED 
TO DEVELOP QUICKLY AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP 
SUBTROPICAL TROUGH. OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS, INVEST 90W IS 
FORECASTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE DEEP 
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH WEAK BAROCLINICITY. AFTER TAU 48, AS THE 
SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARD CENTRAL HONSHU, GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE 
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO A WARM-CORE TROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT 
TRACKS OVER A WARM POOL OF WATER (SST 28-29C) EAST OF THE KANTO 
PLAIN. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER 
SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO 
DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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