WTPN21 PHNC 151900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.9N 98.6W TO 13.9N 105.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 151200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.0N 99.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
10N, 99W, APPROXIMATELY 486 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ZIHUATANEJO, 
MEXICO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A PARTIAL 
151540Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT BROAD CONVECTION UNDERGOING 
CONSOLIDATION OVER A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH FAVORABLE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM (29-30C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) 
AND DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT 
THAT INVEST 97E WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES AND 
INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE 
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONVECTION AND 
IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
161900Z.
//
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