ABPW10 PGTW 150600 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND /SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/150600Z-160600ZJUL2021// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 137.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 134.1E, APPROXIMATELY 602 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A PARTIAL 150427Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION UNDERGOING MINOR CONSOLIDATION OVER A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98W WILL TRACK POLEWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES AND INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS, HOWEVER MODELS DIVERGE ON THE TIMING OF THE INTENSIFICATION TREND. FOR THIS REASON, MODEL TRACKS DIVERGE IN THE LATER TAUS WITH GFS AND NAVGEM PROVIDING CONSISTENT DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEARTERM WITH AN INITIAL POLEWARD TRACK AND ECMWF AND GALWEM SOLUTIONS DEPICTING SLOWER DEVELOPMENT AND THEREFORE SLOWER STORM MOTION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH DECREASING VWS OVER THE NEXT DAY DUE TO A FAVORABLE CONFIGURATION OF AN UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN JAPAN AND THE TUTT TO THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN