WTPN21 PHNC 131400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8N 107.4W TO 14.7N 115.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 131200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.0N 107.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96E) IS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 
107.8W, APPROXIMATELY 1358 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, 
CALIFORNIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
130839Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FORMATIVE BANDING WITH 
AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
(LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-
10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 
96E WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
141400Z.//
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