ABPW10 PGTW 042100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/042100Z-050600ZJUL2021// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041951ZJUL2021// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 04JUL21 1800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN) WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 127.2E, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 042100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 121.1E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA. 1.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 121.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 118.8E, APPROXIMATELY 137 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 040202Z METOP-B IMAGE DEPICT 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS AND FLARING CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 97W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD BUT ARE SPLIT REGARDING INTENSIFICATION, WITH ECMWF DETERMINISTIC MODEL, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE, AND NAVGEM SHOWING DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS WHILE THE GFS AND JGSM ARE BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM. (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN 1.B.(1) TO WARNING STATUS.// NNNN