ABPW10 PGTW 040600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/040600Z-050600ZJUL2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031921ZJUL2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 13.1N 132.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 130.7E, APPROXIMATELY 
566 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 040444Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT 
CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT, WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(VWS). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL TRACK 
NORTHWESTWARD BUT ARE SPLIT REGARDING INTENSIFICATION, WITH GFS 
SHOWING DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT NAVGEM, ECMWF, AND JMA 
STAYING BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. 
SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 031930) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 13.1N 121.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 118.8E, APPROXIMATELY 
137 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 040202Z METOP-B IMAGE DEPICT 15 TO 20 
KNOT WINDS AND FLARING CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN 
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, 
LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL 
AGREEMENT THAT 97W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD BUT ARE SPLIT REGARDING 
INTENSIFICATION, WITH ECMWF DETERMINISTIC MODEL, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE, 
AND NAVGEM SHOWING DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS WHILE 
THE GFS AND JGSM ARE BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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