ABPW10 PGTW 040100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/040100Z-040600ZJUL2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031921ZJUL2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.0N 133.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 132.0E, APPROXIMATELY 
389 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 031605Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE 
DEPICT A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH IMPROVED CURVED BANDING IN THE 
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REORIENTING 
TO THE NORTHWEST INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20 KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SST). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 
96W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD BUT ARE SPLIT REGARDING 
INTENSIFICATION, WITH GFS AND NAVGEM SHOWING DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 
24 HOURS BUT ECMWF AND JMA STAYING BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. A 031241Z 
PARTIAL METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWS A LARGE WIND FIELD WITH SMALL 
POCKETS OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT, 
VERIFYING MODEL INITIALIZATION. THIS INDICATES THE HIGHER POTENTIAL 
FOR INTENSIFICATION AND CONSOLIDATION SHOWN BY GFS AND NAVGEM 
MODELS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 
031930) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
13.1N 121.1E, APPROXIMATELY 93 NM SOUTH OF MANILLA. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 032050Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE 
IMAGE DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF MINDORO 
ISLAND. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT, WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(SST). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 97W WILL TRACK 
NORTHWESTWARD BUT ARE SPLIT REGARDING INTENSIFICATION, WITH ECMWF 
DETERMINISTIC MODEL, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE, AND NAVGEM SHOWING 
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS WHILE THE GFS AND JGSM ARE 
BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2).//
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