WTPN21 PGTW 031930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
190 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.8N 133.4E TO 17.0N 126.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 031900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.0N 133.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 10.4N 133.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 133.2E, APPROXIMATELY 
240 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 031605Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE 
DEPICT A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH IMPROVED CURVED BANDING IN THE 
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REORIENTING 
TO THE NORTHWEST INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20 KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SST). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 
96W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD BUT ARE SPLIT REGARDING 
INTENSIFICATION, WITH GFS AND NAVGEM SHOWING DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 
24 HOURS BUT ECMWF AND JMA STAYING BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. A 031241Z 
PARTIAL METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWS A LARGE WIND FIELD WITH SMALL 
POCKETS OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT, 
VERIFYING MODEL INITIALIZATION. THIS INDICATES THE HIGHER POTENTIAL 
FOR INTENSIFICATION AND CONSOLIDATION SHOWN BY GFS AND NAVGEM 
MODELS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
041930Z.//
NNNN