ABPW10 PGTW 031530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/031530Z-040600ZJUL2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 10.6N 134.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 133.8E, APPROXIMATELY 
190 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 031234Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE 
DEPICT A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH IMPROVED CURVED BANDING IN THE 
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REORIENTING 
TO THE NORTHWEST INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SST). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 
96W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD BUT ARE SPLIT REGARDING 
INTENSIFICATION, WITH GFS AND NAVGEM SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE 
NEXT 24-48 HOURS BUT ECMWF AND JMA STAYING BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO 
MEDIUM.//
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