ABPW10 PGTW 030600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN/PEARL/HARBOR/HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS 030600Z-040600ZJUL2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 10.5N 133.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 134.1E APPROXIMATELY 
198 NM NORTH OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) AND A 030400Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FLARING 
CONVECTION SURROUNDING A WAVE AXIS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS 
MODERATELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH GOOD 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND 
VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). NUMERICAL MODELS 
ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD BUT ARE 
SPLIT REGARDING INTENSIFICATION, WITH GFS AND NAVGEM SHOWING 
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT ECMWF AND JMA STAYING BELOW 
WARNING CRITERIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
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