WTPN21 PHNC 241430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231421Z JUN 21//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 231430)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.1N 98.1W TO 15.6N 103.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 241200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.3N 98.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF MID LEVEL CLOUD LINES
THAT WRAP INTO A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING. ANALYSIS OF THE
SYSTEM STRUCTURE DEPICTED IN THE 37GHZ AND 91GHZ CHANNELS OF A
231105Z SSMIS PASS REVEAL DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BANDS ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM
(28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES AND A POINT SOURCE
SITUATED OVERHEAD THAT IS SUPPORTING DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW ALOFT.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95E WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, HOWEVER SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE TIMING OF THIS INTENSIFICATION TREND.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
251430Z.
//
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