WTPN21 PHNC 241430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241421Z JUN 21//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 241430)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.1N 98.1W TO 15.6N 103.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 241200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.3N 98.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA 
OF FLARING CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF MID LEVEL CLOUD LINES THAT 
WRAP INTO A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING. THE ENVIRONMENT IS 
MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-
29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 
INVEST 95E WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
251430Z.
//
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