WTPN21 PHNC 231430 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95E)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.3N 94.4W TO 14.8N 100.2W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 061200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 95.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DISORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE VACINITY OF MID LEVEL CLOUD LINES THAT WRAP INTO A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING. ANALYSIS OF THE SYSTEM STRUCTURE DEPICTED IN THE 37GHZ AND 91GHZ CHANNELS OF A 231105Z SSMIS PASS REVEAL A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH POSSIBLE FORMATIVE BANDS ALONG THE PERIPHERY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES AND A POINT SOURCE SITUATED OVER HEAD THAT IS SUPPORTING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95E WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, HOWEVER SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE TIMING OF THIS INTENSIFIATION TREND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 241430Z. // NNNN