ABPW10 PGTW 201330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/201330Z-210600ZJUN2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201251ZJUN2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 6.0N 153.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 149.0E, APPROXIMATELY 305 
NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED AREA OF FRAGMENTED CONVECTION. 
A PARTIAL 200252Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A SHARP EASTERLY 
WAVE OR A POSSIBLE WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CYCLING 
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST. PREVIOUS SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES 
AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD, WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN 
SEMICIRCLE AND STRONGER (15-20 KT) WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN 
QUADRANT IN THE GRADIENT FLOW. INVEST 94W IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, 
LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 
INVEST 94W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT SLOWLY 
CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO 
HIGH.//
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