WTPN21 PHNC 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.4N 98.3W TO 13.9N 102.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 170830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.5N 99.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD 
LINES THAT WRAP INTO AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE 
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH 
WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES AND LOW (5-10 
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT IS PARTIALLY OFFSET BY ONLY WEAK UPPER 
LEVEL SUPPORT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 
INVEST 94E WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD AS IT SLOWLY 
CONSOLIDATES OVER THEN NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED 
BY 180900Z.
//
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