ABPW10 PGTW 110600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/110600Z-120600ZJUN2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 17.6N 115.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 113.4E, APPROXIMATELY 
273 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 102335Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS 
A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED FROM 
THE CENTER. IN ADDITION, AN 110230Z ASCAT METOP-C IMAGE SHOWS THAT 
THE RADIUS OF MAX WINDS EXTENDS APPROXIMATELY 150NM FROM THE CENTER, 
INDICATING THAT 92W REMAINS A MONSOON DEPRESSION. UPPER LEVEL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO 
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (10-20 KTS) OFFSET BY A CURRENT 
LACK OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT. 92W REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF WARM 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) (30-31C) GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT 
STEADILY CONSOLIDATES AND INTENSIFIES PRIOR TO MOVING OVER HAINAN 
ISLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAKENING 
DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AS 92W PASSES OVER HAINAN ISLAND, 92W WILL 
RE-INTENSIFY AS IT ENTERS AN AREA OF EVEN WARMER WATERS AND LOWER 
VWS OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN. FURTHERMORE, AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTI-
CYCLONE TO THE NORTH WILL RETROGRADE EASTWARD AND IMPROVE OUTFLOW 
ALLOWING FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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