ABPW10 PGTW 100830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/100830Z-110600ZJUN2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
17.6N 115.0E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 100534Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE 
IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CONVECTION 
DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER AND THE RADIUS OF MAX WINDS EXTENDING TO 
APPROXIMATELY 100NM FROM THE CENTER, INDICATING THAT 92W IS A 
MONSOON DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS (<15 KTS) AND WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURE (29-30C) OFFSET BY A CURRENT LACK OF DIVERGENCE 
ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL CONTINUE 
ITS TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT STEADILY CONSOLIDATES AND 
INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO 
THE NORTH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AND 
REORIENT THUS INCREASING DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 
NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO 
LOW.//
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