WTPN21 PHNC 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060251Z JUN 21//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.1N 109.1W TO 11.9N 112.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 060200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.9N 109.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 13.0N 107.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 109.5W, APPROXIMATELY 
1249 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 062309Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE 
IMAGE DEPICT AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE NORTHWEST OF AN 
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH SUPPORTING 
DIVERGENCE ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND 
WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM HAS A SHORT 
WINDOW FOR DEVELOPMENT AS IT WILL MOVE INTO AN UNFAVORABLE SHEAR AND 
OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. SHOULD THE SYSTEM 
FORM, IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 060300).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
080300Z.//
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