WTPN21 PHNC 060300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92E) REISSUED// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050251Z JUN 21// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 080 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.1N 107.3W TO 12.4N 110.1W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 060200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 107.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 107.6W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 107.5W, APPROXIMATELY 1296 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 052322Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH SUPPORTING DIVERGENCE ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DESPITE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, NUMERICAL MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE SYSTEM AND INDICATE NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD THE SYSTEM FORM, IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 050300). 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 070300Z.// NNNN