WTPN21 PHNC 050300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92E)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 080 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.8N 107.4W TO 14.3N 109.6W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 050130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 107.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92E) IS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 107.6W, APPROXIMATELY 1285 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 050156Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH SUPPORTING DIVERGENCE ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92E WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT INTENSIFIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 060300Z.// NNNN