ABIO10 PGTW 021800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/021800Z-031800ZJUN2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 10.7S 92E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 97.5E, APPROXIMATELY 44 NM 
EAST OF COCO ISLANDS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) 
SHOWS A SINGULAR MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING A BROAD LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC) AND A PARTIAL 021545Z 25KM ASCAT PASS DEPICTS AN 
OBTUSE WIND FIELD WITH 30KTS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 
WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH SHAPE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
SHOWS MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, AND LOW (10-15 KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM, OFFSET BY STRONG VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR(>30KTS) DOWNSTREAM. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 93S 
WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG A WEAK BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY 
WITH A MINIMAL WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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