ABIO10 PGTW 011800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/011800Z-021800ZJUN2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 9.5S 90.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7S 92.5E, APPROXIMATELY 273 
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 011032Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS 
FORMATIVE BANDING AND DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING A BROAD LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS 
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. 
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL TRACK GENERALLY 
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG A WEAK BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT 
WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN