ABIO10 PGTW 010530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/010530Z-011800ZJUN2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 9.3S 90.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5S 90.7E, APPROXIMATELY 399 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 010017Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS 
FORMATIVE BANDING AND DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING A BROAD LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC). THE ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH WARM (28-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES, STRONG 
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. OUTFLOW 
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TAP INTO 
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. FURTHERMORE, A 010217Z METOP-B ASCAT 
IMAGE SHOWS INCREASED WINDS (20-25KTS) ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY 
BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE DISTURBANCE. 
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL TRACK GENERALLY 
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG A WEAK BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT 
WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO 
MEDIUM.//
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