ABIO10 PGTW 010330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/010330Z-011800ZJUN2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.3S 
90.8E, APPROXIMATELY 397 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDING 
AND DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING A BROAD AREA OF MID LEVEL TURNING. LOW 
LEVEL FEATURES PRESENT IN BOTH THE 91 GHZ AND 37 GHZ FREQUENCIES OF 
A 010017Z SSMIS PASS REVEAL AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND 
PROVIDE MODEST CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE ENVIRONMENT 
IS SUPPORTIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURE VALUES, STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW (5-10 KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, OUTFLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM IS TAPPING INTO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. 
DESPITE THESE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, NUMERICAL 
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN ONLY SLIGHTLY 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION THEREAFTER AS IT 
TRACKS GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA 1.B.1.//
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